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OBSERVATORY REPORT No. 1

Nothing changed on the websites.
AI citations still halved.

  • Published:
  • Period: Oct 5–19, 2026
  • KnownFor market observatory

On October 10, 2026, the model behind Gemini’s answers switched to a different version (gemini-3.6-flash) than the one requested. Before vs after: search ran in 97.9% → 71.7% of answers, cited sites per answer fell from 11.6 to 5.2 on average, and the share of brands cited as sources fell from 17.0% to 8.6%. Naming barely changed. ChatGPT did not change over the same period.

Before 17.0% Before17.0%After 8.6% After8.6%
Share of brands whose site was cited (Gemini). 100 dots stand for all brands we track; the black dots are the share whose site was cited.
Sites cited per answer (average, Gemini)Before 11.6Before11.6After 5.2After5.2
Each page icon is one site; fractions are shown as partly filled icons.

Gemini: before and after the switch

MetricBefore (gemini-3.5-flash)After (gemini-3.6-flash)
Answers where web search ran97.9%71.7%
Sites cited per answer (average)11.65.2
Share of brands named58.6%61.9%
Share of brands whose site was cited17.0%8.6%

The citation share fell in 90% of the categories we observe.

fellfellfellfellfellfellfellfellfellrose ↓ fell 90% ↑ rose 10%
Movement by category (Gemini citation share). Ten squares show the proportion: black squares with ↓ are categories that fell; the white square with ↑ rose.

ChatGPT (gpt-5.6-luna) over the same period

MetricBeforeAfter
Answers where web search ran96.9%96.5%
Sites cited per answer (average)3.43.2
Share of brands named36.2%35.3%
Share of brands whose site was cited23.3%22.9%

In the categories where we also ask ChatGPT the same questions, the model stayed the same and so did the numbers. What moved was Gemini, not the websites.

Gemini ChatGPT0%10%20%30% BeforeAfter ChatGPT: 23.3% → 22.9% ChatGPT 22.9% 23.3%Gemini: 17.0% → 8.6% Gemini 8.6% 17.0%
Before and after over the same period. Only Gemini (black, filled dots) falls; ChatGPT (gray, hollow dots) stays almost flat.

What happened

KnownFor asks AI the same questions for each industry every day and records the model name the AI reports with each answer. From the evening of October 10, 2026 (Japan time), while we kept requesting gemini-3.5-flash, the answers reported gemini-3.6-flash.

At the same time, Gemini searched the web before answering less often, and each answer cited about half as many sites. The share of brands named barely changed; only the share of brands whose site was cited roughly halved.

Oct 5 observingOct 10 switchOct 19 Model requestedgemini-3.5-flash Model used in answersgemini-3.5-flashgemini-3.6-flash ChatGPT (no change)gpt-5.6-luna
The model we requested stayed the same throughout. Only the model Gemini actually used for its answers changed.

What it means for companies

  • Your citation share can change sharply even if you change nothing. When comparing before and after, first check whether the AI model changed.
  • With fewer citation slots, getting into one of the remaining few matters more. Look at your numbers after removing the market-wide movement, not just at your own numbers.
  • Even when you are named, if the cited source is another company’s page, AI describes you in their words. Measure naming and citation separately.

Method and limitations

  • We counted answers to the same questions (without company names) asked every day for each industry in our market observatory. Error responses are excluded.
  • "Before" is October 5 to 10, 2026 (until the switch); "after" is from the switch on October 10 to October 19.
  • "Share named" and "share cited" are, per answer, the share of the brands we track that were named (or whose site was cited).
  • We observe a subset of industries in the Japanese market, and the period is still short. Counts, industry names and questions are not published until the observatory reaches a certain scale.
  • Model names are as reported in the answers. KnownFor is not affiliated with, endorsed or approved by Google or OpenAI.

What happened in your market?

KnownFor shows the market-wide movement separately from where your products and services stand.